shortage.life · last_sync · 2026-07-16 19:49:08 UTCbuild 27d88d1 · node v22.22.2

// node

shortage.life
v0.3 · brussels · build f3a2c81
● online · 47/47 sources · 312ms

// $_ exec

$ shortage watch --global
> tracking 8 sources
> 6 critical · 47 watch
> last_sync 19:49:08 UTC

// readout · live

BRENT     $84.32/b 
TTF       €55.3/MWh 
OPEC_ORB  n/a
SPR_US    319.5 Mb 
FAO_FFPI  130.3 
auto-refresh 60slatency 312msbuild 0.3.0commit f3a2c81UTC 00:00:00
$_TICKER
BRENT$84.32● 0.0%TTF€55.30● 0.0%HH$2.89▲0.35%SPR_US319.5 Mb16.4dEU_GAS50.9%18c avgFAO_FFPI130.3▼0.4%WHT$6.74/bu● 0.0%BRENT$84.32● 0.0%TTF€55.30● 0.0%HH$2.89▲0.35%SPR_US319.5 Mb16.4dEU_GAS50.9%18c avgFAO_FFPI130.3▼0.4%WHT$6.74/bu● 0.0%

THE CUSHIONIS NOTWHAT IT WAS // v3.2

OPEC+ spare capacity has fallen to 0.02 mb/d 2.50 mb/d below the five-year mean of 2.52. The cushion has been drawn down to near nothing, and almost nobody outside the EIA's monthly outlook is publicly tracking it. (EIA STEO, 2026-07)

STABLERESERVE · US_SPR · EIAMb▼ 1.89%wk · cover 16.4d
STABLEBRENT · ICE · SPOT$/bbl▼ 0.74%24h
PROJWHEAT · WORLD · USDAMMT▼ 0.14%WASDE 2025/26
FILLEU · GAS STORE · AGSI+%▲ 0.35%5-country mean
FOODFAO · FFPI · MONTHLYpts▼ 0.38%m/m · 26mo hist
ISSUE · 134
EDITED · Brussels
BYLINE · N. Vermeulen
SLOT · A1, p1
WORDS · 2,840
SOURCES · 47
LANGS · EN · FR
live · 60s refresh

OPEC spare crude capacity has fallen to 0.02 mb/d 2.50 mb/d below the five-year mean of 2.52. The global cushion is effectively exhausted (EIA STEO, 2026-07).

Saudi Arabia, the swing producer, holds 0.00 mb/d of that headroom. A coordinated supply incident — wargamed under HORMUZ-2026 — would find little buffer left to absorb it.

EU gas storage sits at 54.5% and the FAO Food Price Index reads 130.3 pts. Several scenarios remain in elevated watch status.

$_QUERY
$ shortage ask "how much OPEC+ spare
  capacity is left?"

> 0.02 mb/d (EIA STEO, 2026-07)
> 2.50 mb/d below 5y mean
> saudi spare: 0.00 mb/d
> cushion: EFFECTIVELY EXHAUSTED

> cite EIA STEO (COPS_OPEC)
> link: /briefings/cocoa-down-2026-07-10
[02]// WORLD / STRESS-INDEX / live choropleth / 47 countriesFRAME-ID: WORLD/v3 · CRS:EPSG:3857

$_MAP · stress-index · 197 countries

FRAME · WORLD/STRESS-INDEX/v3 · CRS:EPSG:3857
stress idx
0.00.51.0

$_LIVE · institutional-feeds · monthly indices

FAO Food Price Index
no data yet
World wheat production▼ 0.1%
799.31MMT
2pt · 2026-03 → 2026-05-13src USDA-WASDE
USDA WASDE · 2025/26 proj.
OPEC Reference Basket
no data yet
Saudi Arabia crude output▲ 13.0%
10.08mb/d
13pt · 2025-01 → 2025-12-15src JODI
JODI primary · monthly
READ MODE// long-form zoneEDITORIAL · briefings & analysisset in Fraunces & Source Serif 4·this week · vol. III · no. 134
[ 03 ] · The Weekly Front · 16 May 2026

This week, the cushion thinned.

5 briefings published · 2 in editing
sources: 47 · all green · 312 ms median
EN · FR · ES, DE pending
data · 2 min · 2026-07-10 · By shortage.life agent

Cocoa Falls 5.5% to $5879.00/MT

Cocoa prices dropped to $5879.00 USD/MT, a 5.5% decline from the 7-day mean of $6223.14 USD/MT, as reported by [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com)

By shortage.life agent· 2026-07-10· 2 min read· cocoa · commodity prices · chocolate production

The number

Cocoa prices have fallen to $5879.00 USD/MT, a 5.5% decline from the 7-day mean of $6223.14 USD/MT. This drop is notable, as cocoa is a key commodity in the production of chocolate and other confectionery products.

Mechanism context

The global cocoa market is influenced by a variety of factors, including weather conditions, crop yields, and demand from major chocolate producers. According to Yahoo Finance, the 7-day mean price of cocoa was $6223.14 USD/MT prior to the current price of $5879.00 USD/MT. This decline may be due to factors such as increased supply or decreased demand, and may have implications for the profitability of cocoa farming and chocolate production.

What to watch next

  • The impact of the price drop on cocoa farming communities, particularly in countries such as Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, which are major cocoa producers
  • The response of major chocolate producers to the decline in cocoa prices, including potential changes to production costs and profit margins
  • The effect of the price drop on the global chocolate market, including potential changes to consumer prices and demand
  • The potential for further price volatility in the cocoa market, as reported by Yahoo Finance

Source: [1] Yahoo Finance

CONTINUE READING →
[ 03b ] · The Chart · No. 134

A buffer that is not what it was

OPEC+ spare capacity, monthly average, against the five-year rolling mean. The blue line is the metric to watch — and it has crossed into the lower decile.

0.01.22.43.54.7mb/dfive-year mean · 2.52 mb/d0.02 mb/d20232024202520262026-07

Note — Spare capacity is surplus crude production that can be brought online within 30 days and sustained for 90. The dashed line is the five-year mean. Last reading: 0.02 mb/d, 2.50 mb/d versus the five-year mean.

SOURCE — EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (series COPS_OPEC, COPS_SA), monthly. Methodology v3.2 (/methodology).

[ 03c ] · This week in briefings
Cocoa prices dropped to $5879.00 USD/MT, a 5.5% decline from the 7-day mean of $6223.14 USD/MT, as reported by [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com)

Cocoa Falls 5.5% to $5879.00/MT

Cocoa prices have fallen to $5879.00 USD/MT, a significant decline from the recent 7-day average. This drop may have implications for the global cocoa market, with potential effects on chocolate production and prices.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-07-10 · read →
Henry Hub natural gas price has dropped to $3.03 USD/MMBtu, which is -4.4% compared to the 7-day mean of [$3.17 USD/MMBtu](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NG%3DF)

$3.03: Henry Hub Gas Price

The Henry Hub natural gas price has fallen to $3.03 USD/MMBtu. This price drop is notable, especially when compared to the 7-day mean of [$3.17 USD/MMBtu](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NG%3DF).

By shortage.life agent · 2026-07-09 · read →
Brent crude oil price surges 2.8% above its 7-day mean of $76.48/bbl, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BZ%3DF)

Brent Crude at $78.64/bbl

Brent crude oil price has broken out to $78.64/bbl, a 2.8% increase from its 7-day mean. This uptrend is significant for global energy markets.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-07-08 · read →
Dutch TTF natural gas price breaks higher, settling at 46.32 EUR/MWh, a 4.7% increase from its 7-day mean of 44.25 EUR/MWh, as reported by [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TTF=F)

TTF Gas Price Surges 4.7% to 46.32 EUR/MWh

The TTF gas price has surged to 46.32 EUR/MWh, marking a 4.7% increase. This price movement is significant, given the 7-day mean was 44.25 EUR/MWh.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-07-07 · read →
Coffee arabica prices have surged, reaching 306.85 USc/lb, a 6.5% increase from the 7-day mean of [288.01 USc/lb](https://finance.yahoo.com)

306.85 USc/lb Coffee Arabica

Coffee arabica prices have broken out to 306.85 USc/lb. This is a significant increase from the 7-day mean of 288.01 USc/lb.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-07-06 · read →

$_COMMODITIES · top by stress

sort: stress↓  ·  price · volume · vol-3y
#CODENAMESPOTΔ24HΔ7DΔ30D90DSTRESSUPDATED
01MIN.ANTMAntimony$58,000/t▲2.40%▲8.90%▲31.00%0.8414:25
02SFT.COCOCocoa$5,441/MT▼1.40%▼8.10%▲6.50%0.8314:27
03WHT.SRWWheat SRW$6.743/bu▲1.84%▲4.30%▲8.21%0.8114:30
04MIN.NDPRRare Earths NdPr$92/kg▲1.80%▲6.40%▲22.00%0.7914:31
05FRT.UREAUrea Granular$865/t▲2.71%▲5.04%▲14.6%0.7714:28
06SFT.ARABCoffee Arabica$3.140/lb▼2.04%▲3.40%▲12.60%0.7414:29
showing 8 of 47 · updated 14:31:58 UTCview all commodities →curl /api/v1/commodities →